8/28/09
by: Scott
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This list was the trickiest one yet to compile. The Eastern Conference appears to have a lot of power forwards who either play out of position (Lewis, Smith, Warrick, Diaw) or they put up nice numbers but they're awful defenders (Jamison, Villanueva, Murphy) or they'd be ranked higher if I was convinced they were going to return to their pre-injury glory (Garnett, Brand). That's nine out of the 15 players in the list. Only the top two places and the last spot came easy to me.
As always, these rankings are meant to project how I think they'll perform next season, not what they've done in the past. The numbers next to each player are last season's points, assists and rebounds per 36 minutes, their True Shooting percentage (TS%) and their Player Efficiency Ratings (PER).
1. Chris Bosh, Toronto — 2008-09 numbers: 21.5 PTS, 2.3 AST, 9.5 REB, .569 TS%, 22.1 PER
CB4 probably belongs on the top of this list even if he just delivers the same numbers he has over the past four seasons, but it's a contract year and he wants to prove he's worth a max contract. I don't know if his scoring numbers will increase, but I think he's going to jack up his intensity on defence and on the boards.
2. Kevin Garnett, Boston — 2008-09 numbers: 18.3 PTS, 2.9 AST, 9.9 REB, .563 TS%, 21.2 PER
Before KG screwed up his knee, he was easily the best power forward in the East. Since he's 33 years old, I'm skeptical that he can return with the same athleticism and explosiveness he's known for. Of course, Boston fans will tell you that he'll more than make up for that with heart, intensity, and plain ol' Celtic Pride. (Pausing to vomit profusely in wastebasket.)
3. Rashard Lewis, Orlando — 2008-09 numbers: 17.6 PTS, 2.6 AST, 5.7 REB, .580 TS%, 16.8 PER
Rashard scored in double figures in all 19 playoff games leading up to the NBA Finals — he was particularly devastating in helping to dispatch the favoured Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. He might end up sliding over to small forward while new team-mate Brandon Bass mans the four-spot, but without confirmation I'll assume that Lewis will remain the starting power forward and an excellent complement to Dwight Howard's power game.
4. Josh Smith, Atlanta — 2008-09 numbers: 16.0 PTS, 2.5 AST, 7.4 REB, .533 TS%, 17.2 PER
Sure, he's a knucklehead, but a very talented one. If he stops jacking up ill-advised threes and returns to being one of the most devastating shot-blockers in the league, Smith's $10.8 million salary next season might actually seem like a relative bargain.
5. Elton Brand, Philadelphia — 2008-09 numbers: 15.6 PTS, 1.4 AST, 9.9 REB, .484 TS%, 14.6 PER
If he was still in his prime, Brand would easily be third on this list. Unfortunately, he was in the bottom half of Eastern power forwards last season because he was labouring with a bum shoulder and he only played in 29 games. There isn't a strong track record of big men in their 30s returning to their prior glory after a bad run of injuries (see: Jermaine O'Neal) but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can get his shooting percentage back up to pre-injury form since he claims he's feeling like his old self again.
6. Antawn Jamison, Washington — 2008-09 numbers: 20.9 PTS, 1.8 AST, 8.4 REB, .549 TS%, 20.6 PER
Jamison has always put up good numbers and as far as I know, he's always been a terrible defender. That might help explain why the Wizards had the second-worst record in the NBA last season.
7. Troy Murphy, Indiana — 2008-09 numbers: 15.1 PTS, 2.5 AST, 12.5 REB, .614 TS%, 17.8 PER
Is Troy Murphy a better athlete than Andrea Bargnani? And if not, how does Troy grab twice as many rebounds as Andrea per 36 minutes? Murphy is just as deadly from beyond the arc (45% last season) as Bargnani, but our guy gets the edge on defence because Murph is lousy on that end.
8. Charlie Villanueva, Detroit — 2008-09 numbers: 21.7 PTS, 2.4 AST, 8.9 REB, .529 TS%, 18.6 PER
A breakout season in a contract year? You don't say! Charlie's Usage Rate (the percentage of plays that ended with the ball in his hands while he was on the floor) went through the roof in Milwaukee last season as Michael Redd missed most of the year. He finished eighth in the NBA in that stat last season — tied with Tim Duncan. I'm going to go ahead and say that if Charlie Villanueva is finishing as many plays on your team as Tim Duncan, that's not a good sign. Now that he's playing with Rip Hamilton (15th in Usage Rate) and Ben Gordon (another guy who likes to shoot a lot), you can safely assume that Charlie's numbers will decline next season.
9. Anderson Varejao, Cleveland — 2008-09 numbers: 10.8 PTS, 1.3 AST, 9.1 REB, .565 TS%, 14.6 PER
Yeah, he's a role player, but he's a damn good one. If you're the Cavs, you probably wouldn't switch him for two-thirds of the players on this list because of the specific role they need him to play — defend well, rebound, dive for loose balls, and don't expect any plays to be called for you.
10.Al Harrington, New York — 2008-09 numbers: 21.3 PTS, 1.4 AST, 6.5 REB, .555 TS%, 16.4 PER
I was initially surprised that Harrington's scoring production rivalled Chris Bosh's output, but then I remembered that Knicks play "D'Antoni-ball". Regardless, Harrington's a solid all-around player who doesn't do any one thing particularly well.
11. Boris Diaw, Charlotte — 2008-09 numbers: 14.4 PTS, 4.7 AST, 5.7 REB, .558 TS%, 14.9 PER
I've never understood why this guy plays power forward when he's built and plays like a guard, but he proved to be a great acquisition for Charlotte last season and he's reportedly a Larry Brown favourite.
12. Tyrus Thomas, Chicago — 2008-09 numbers: 14.2 PTS, 1.3 AST, 8.4 REB, .525 TS%, 15.9 PER
Easily the biggest disappointment on this list, Thomas has a million dollar body and a 10-cent brain. He came on strong in the last couple of months of the season, however, so maybe there's hope yet for him to live up to his potential.
13. Hakim Warrick, Milwaukee — 2008-09 numbers: 16.9 PTS, 1.2 AST, 7.2 REB, .554 TS%, 16.9 PER
He's athletic and he's improved in each of his last three seasons, but he's 27 years old so this is probably as good as he's going to get.
14. Udonis Haslem, Miami — 2008-09 numbers: 11.2 PTS, 1.2 AST, 8.7 REB, .553 TS%, 13.1 PER
This might be Michael Beasley's job by mid-season, but he's having some personal problems right now so I'm going to assume that the U-Don is going to provide his unspectacular rebounding and defence from a starting role in the meantime.
15. Yi Jianlian, New Jersey — 2008-09 numbers: 13.3 PTS, 1.5 AST, 8.3 REB, .474 TS%, 10.9 PER
He's been pretty awful for most of his two NBA seasons and he might be three years older than his reported age of 21. I'm pretty comfortable with putting him at the bottom of this list.
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