7/22/09
by: Carlos Chaloub
Permalink
 |
The common refrain about the NBA Summer League is that the games played do not tell you who can play in the real NBA, but that can show you who can't. However, there are more caveats to it than that. For example, in a short stretch of five games, anybody can catch fire and dominate his games. Moreover, in a 22-team league, each team only plays 5 games, and depending on a team's draw, some teams play stronger teams than others. It's basically a crapshoot.
However, Summer League does show who is still not ready for primetime. It also shows who's still carrying his college stats over to the big leagues. For example, DaJuan Blair dominated college rebounding, and found a way to continue to dominate in summer league (TRB% of 21.01). DeMar DeRozan didn't have a 3-point shot in college and he still couldn't shoot the trey in summer league (1-for-5). So, we know what to expect from such players in certain categories when they hit their first full NBA season.
Summer league can also reveal which rookies are ready to contribute right away and which ones need further seasoning — or might be a complete bust. If you can't dominate NBDL players, NBA cast-offs, and bench warmers, you're not really ready for primetime.
To this effect, I went through the rookie performances in the 2009 Vegas Summer League and charted their efficiencies. Don't be fooled by PPG and other mundane stats. Stephen Curry averaged 17.4 points per game despite a True Shooting Percentage (TS%) of .471. That’s what taking 16 shots per game can do for you. The main categories that I charted are TS%, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Rebounding Percentage (TRB%) and Pure Point Ratio (PPR) and Total. For those unfamiliar with the first three stats, click here. To understand PPR, click here.
Surprisingly, the most dominant players did not come from the top of the draft, but from the low first-round picks and some second-round picks. Budinger, Blair, Collison, Thornton, Lawson, Beaubois, Cunningham, and Meeks were 8 of top 10 performers. Obviously, Budinger is not going to average a PER of 34 in the NBA (LeBron James led the league with a PER of 31.7 last season), but he proved that he could play at the next level. So did Blair, who has lottery-level talent, but the bad knees made him tumble deep into the second round. He could prove to be a steal for the Spurs.
DeRozan proved his all-around play: Good shooting percentages that were lowered due to his inability to shoot the 3, good rebounding numbers for a guard, and a very good assist-to-turnover ratio (PPR).
The biggest disappointments were Hill, Clark and Thabeet. Hill barely cracked the average player PER, whereas Thabeet and Clark performed below the level of an NBA bench player. I don't know how their NBA careers will turn out, but I gather that they won’t be fighting for the Rookie of the Year award.
As to the other Raptors on the summer league rosters:
Douby was the MVP of the team, he shot well, distributed well, rebounded well, and protected the ball well. He was also clutch, and might have proved his worth to the Raptors' coaching staff.
O'Bryant shot very good percentages, but his soft rebounding at the C spot is not going to cut it at the next level. The Raptors are already crying for help in this department with Bosh and Bargnani being average to severely below-average for their position.
Ukic shot a very good percentage — especially from beyond the arc — but he's still dismal with his turnovers and assists. This was his chance to prove that he can manage a team on the court, but I think his 1-versus-5 antics will see him on the bench next season more often than not. 
|
