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The 2009 NBA off-season is rich with small forwards looking for new contracts, and it just so happens that the Raptors have a gaping hole at this position now that both Shawn Marion and Joey Graham are free agents. With the free agent negotiation period beginning at midnight tonight, this seems like an ideal time to evaluate the crop of available small forwards — pinpointing their strengths and weaknesses, and estimating what it will probably take Bryan Colangelo to convince each player to sign on the line that is dotted.
Note: Click on the linked names to see their stats. And as much as many of you like Charlie Villanueva, I didn't include him because he's not a small forward in any sense of the word.
Trevor Ariza, 24 years old — Coming off a critical role in the Lakers' championship where he earned just $3.1 million last season, Ariza is looking for a significant raise and his agent has stated there won't be a "hometown discount". Strengths: He's young, athletic, a good defender, and he appears to have turned his outside shooting from a liability to a potential strength as he made a respectable 31.9 percent of his three-pointers in the regular season and 47.6 percent of his treys in the playoffs. Weaknesses: He has a history of injury problems, he can't really create his own shot and he's not cut out to be more than a fourth option on offence. Likely signing range: Four years, $28-30 million
Ron Artest, 29 years old — With the news that Yao Ming has a potentially career-ending foot injury, it seems unlikely that Artest will fit into the Rockets' long-term plans. Strengths: He's still a top-notch defender and productive scorer and some signs indicate that he may have turned over a new leaf, maturity-wise. Weaknesses: He's more ball-dominant than most teams like on offence. He also maintains a year-round residence in Crazytown. Likely signing range: Three years, $18-21 million
Josh Childress, 26 years old — After playing a season in Greece, he might be enticed to return to the NBA if the right opportunity is presented. Strengths: Good shooter, decent defender, solid team-mate. Weaknesses: With a slow release and ugly form, he's pretty bad at creating his own offence. Likely signing range: Three years, $12-18 million
Joey Graham, 27 years old — BWA-HAHAHAHA! Woooo... seriously, though. No.
Grant Hill, 36 years old — Grant Hill was hoping to be part of a championship run in Phoenix, but it's safe to say that's not really in the cards now. Chances are he's going to sign with a team that has a much better short-term future than the Raptors. Strengths: He's the definition of a crafty veteran and coach's dream who plays the game the way it's meant to be played on both ends of the court. Weaknesses: He's old. Likely signing range: Two years, $12 million
Linas Kleiza, 24 years old — After an impressive showing as a key reserve in the Nuggets' Western Conference Finals run, he's seeking a big raise from the $1.8 million he made last season. Strengths: He emerged in the 2009 playoffs as a tough defender with the potential to be a very good shooter (shooting 42.5 percent on threes in the post-season). Weaknesses: He's not the most elegant player on offence and his ceiling is pretty limited in spite of his youth. Likely signing range: Three years, $12-18 million
Shawn Marion, 31 years old — If you're wondering where Marion will sign this season, follow the money. The Raptors are the clear favorite in this hunt in terms of having the cap space and need for a solution at small forward. Strengths: Although he's declined from his prime years in Phoenix, he's still an excellent rebounder, a good athlete and a solid defender. Weaknesses: He still has the ugliest shot in the league and I have a suspicion that he could turn into a clubhouse cancer after he's forced to sign for around half of the $17.8 million he pulled in last season. Likely signing range: Three years, $24-27 million
Lamar Odom, 29 years old — There's almost no chance Odom won't re-sign with the Lakers this off-season. He loves living on the coast and he was an integral part of his team's championship. Strengths: Lamar is a good all-around player who has shown flashes of greatness throughout his career. There's really nothing he can't do on the basketball court, and how many players can you say that about? Weaknesses: He's one of the league's true flakes and he's a high risk for Type 2 diabetes. Likely signing range: Five years, $50-55 million, unlimited Swedish Berries
Hedo Turkoglu, 30 years old — The greatest Turkish player in NBA history is one of the hottest commodities on the free agent market. Strengths: Hedo is a savvy, gifted offensive player who can contribute both as a scorer and playmaker. Weaknesses: It's a testament to Dwight Howard's impact that the Magic were able to disguise what a mediocre defender he is. Also, he's incredibly overrated as a clutch shooter. Likely signing range: Five years, $50-55 million
Marvin Williams, 23 years old — While he hasn't lived up to the promise of being selected second overall in the 2005 draft, he's still poised for a breakout — both on the court and at the bank. Strengths: He's a tremendous athlete who finally started to show some offensive skill last season as he shot a career-high 35.5 percent from three-point range. Weaknesses: Williams has yet to show he can translate his raw talent into making a significant impact on the floor. When you sign this guy, you're mostly counting on his capability to fulfill his potential. Likely signing range: Five years, $45-50 million
Out of this diverse group, Shawn Marion remains the most likely candidate to man the three-spot for the Raptors next season. The current economic climate means that his options are limited if he insists on earning more than the mid-level exception (roughly $5.8 million) going forward — and the Raptors offer the best combination of financial flexibility and positional need for a player like Marion.
However, if I had to pick one guy for the Raptors to target this off-season, it would be Trevor Ariza. He's admittedly not the most offensively polished player in the group, but I think he would fit in just fine in a fast-paced offence where he could be a decent fourth option who is proving to be increasingly dangerous at hitting open shots. More importantly, he's an elite athlete who would immediately become the best defender in the Raptors' starting lineup.
I expect that many of you will think that four years at $28-30 million seems like a lot to offer a guy who has never averaged more than 24 minutes or nine points per game over his previous five seasons. But you should consider that Ariza is not a depreciating asset who will lose value through the later years of his contract. Unlike Marion and Turkoglu, Ariza will be in his 20s for the entirety of his next contract. Since the Raptors are nowhere close to contention, they should look to sign a guy who should still be in his prime two or three seasons from now.
I have no idea if Ariza is really on Colangelo's radar, but the preceding list shows that he has plenty of options this off-season. And no matter who he signs, he can't be any more of a bust than Jason Kapono, right? 
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