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While it was never really in much doubt, it was actually quite helpful of Chris Bosh to announce that he will become a free agent after the 2009-10 season and that he intends to ask for a maximum contract. This is what most of us would do in his situation, so as much as we might fantasize about Bosh extending his contract this off-season (for the maximum allowable three years) for less than the maximum amount, he is going to do what is best for him professionally and financially. He's going to hold off until after next season when he will likely sign a six-year contract in the range of $130 million dollars.
Where he signs that contract could (and actually should) be decided as soon as the NBA Draft on June 25th. If Bryan Colangelo is smart, he will trade Bosh now when he might still get 80 cents on the dollar for him. If he waits and tries to trade him before next season's trade deadline or in a sign-and-trade at the end of the season, Colangelo will get even less in return.
There is also the option that many Raptors fans prefer, which is to simply pay the man what he wants. This camp maintains that the Raptors' ongoing mediocrity is not Chris Bosh's fault, that he can be a winner if you surround him with better players. The challenge with arguing that statement is that it's technically correct. For example, it wasn't Pau Gasol's fault that the Memphis Grizzlies couldn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs in his six seasons on the team. Bosh has had a similar fate in Toronto — six seasons, no playoff round victories.
And just look at Pau Gasol now. There's a very good chance that he's going to win a championship ring this month. If the Grizzlies could have surrounded him with players on a level with Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum... actually, nevermind Odom and Bynum. It's really all about Kobe, wouldn't you agree?
Who's going to be "the Kobe" so Chris Bosh can be a winner in Toronto? More specifically, how do you suggest the Raptors acquire that kind of player with the assets they have, with the lack of cap space they'll continue to have, and with the mid-round draft picks they'll have if they re-sign Bosh? Therein lies the problem. You can justify paying Pau Gasol or Rashard Lewis max money if there's already another player on the team who is even better — a top-five talent in the NBA. If you sign that "max money second banana" first, the likelihood of acquiring that superstar teammate is virtually nil.
You see, signing Bosh to a max contract extension virtually guarantees that the Raptors will remain in the spin cycle they have been stuck in throughout his tenure. In five of his six seasons, the Raptors won between 33 and 47 games — not good enough to be really good and not bad enough to have a good chance at a top-three draft pick. The one year they broke the mould, won 27 games and got the first overall pick — in 2006 — there turned out to be only one future superstar in the draft and they passed on him for Andrea Bargnani, who himself will never ascend beyond second banana status.
That spin cycle is the worst place for an NBA franchise to be in. In terms of either competing for a championship or trying to put your team in a position to build towards one, you really want to either win over 55 games or fewer than 30 games in any given season. If you win more than 55 games, you're probably a legitimate championship contender. If you win fewer than 30 games, you stink right now but if you draft wisely with your high picks and make effective use of cap space, you might be able to build towards being a contender. Case in point: Orlando's progression from 2003-04 to this season — 21 wins, then 36, 36, 40, 52 and 59.
Signing Bosh to a max contract in 2010 will most likely doom this franchise to winning between 30 and 50 games for the duration of his time in Toronto. The only ways to break out of that mould are through luck — the "bad luck" of losing Bosh for most of the season due to injury and earning the opportunity to draft a potential superstar with a high draft pick, or the good luck of having the right pieces at the right time to trade for a player like Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol who can elevate your team to the level of a true contender. In both cases, luck is the primary factor.
I prefer the odds of building a contending team from the ground up, and signing Chris Bosh to a max contract in Toronto makes that scenario nearly impossible. If Colangelo realizes this, he'll trade Bosh this off-season for a young prospect, a draft pick and cap space and begin that building process right now.
As I've stated before, the most logical trade to get to that point would be to send Bosh and filler to Miami for Micheal Beasley, Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount, and hopefully a draft pick. This trade would net us a prospect in Beasley who projects out to a possible 20 and 10 player in his prime, as well as $15 million in cap space from the expiring contracts of Haslem and Blount. There could be other trades you like better, but Miami makes the most sense because Pat Riley can probably appreciate the value of bringing in Bosh right now to play second banana to Dwyane Wade while he's still healthy. Plus, Riley would probably feel confident that Bosh would want to re-sign with Miami in 2010 because of the location and the legitimate potential to contend for a championship.
Beasley is not a replacement for Bosh and it's far from a certainty he'll ever be as good as him, but he's one of the better young prospects in the game right now and he's certainly a better piece than what the Raptors got for Vince Carter or Memphis got for Pau Gasol. Given the circumstances, I think this is a trade that both sides would be foolhardy to turn down — almost as foolhardy as a GM or fan who believes that the Raptors will ever win more than 55 games in a season if Chris Bosh is still on the team beyond 2010.
So, I guess you could say I'm relieved that Bosh has confirmed our suspicions about his intentions. His statements have strengthened my resolve that the Raptors need to trade him this off-season. If he's still on the team when the 2009-10 season begins, it will be too late.
The time for bold action is now. Your move, Bryan. 
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