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2007-08 Per 36 Minute Averages: 17.0 PTS, 8.4 REB, 2.8 AST, 2.6 BLK, 0.6 STL, 3.2 TO 2007-08 Advanced Stats: .489 TS%, 12.8 TRB%, 14.4 PER These profiles will feature nine players on the Raptors' roster that I have been able to evaluate from previous performance. For explanation of the stat lines, check out my primers on Per 36 Minutes Averages, TS%, TRB% and PER. For Jermaine O'Neal, his arrival in Toronto isn't merely a catalyst for a comeback — it's a renaissance. The six-time All Star is coming off his worst season since he became a full-time starter in Indiana in 2000. Injuries and questionable motivation had reduced one of the NBA's most dominant defensive presences to a grossly overpaid shell of his younger self. O'Neal arrives in Toronto at the age of 29 as the most highly-paid pro athlete in the history of Canadian pro sports. The Raptors medical staff claims O'Neal's health is finally 100 percent — but you'll have to excuse some doubters (especially Pacers fans) if they're skeptical of that claim. Regardless, those who predict another lost season for the $21 million man are engaging in cynical doomsaying. Whatever baggage he was carrying around in Indiana, there is ample reason to believe that O'Neal can make a huge impact on the 2008-09 Raptors. A not-entirely-ridiculous comparison can be made between Jermaine and another O'Neal who changed teams, revived his flagging career and attached jumper cables to the motor of an idling franchise. In 2004, the Miami Heat were coming off a 42-40 season led by young star Dwyane Wade when they acquired disgruntled, oft-injured Shaq from the Lakers. Arriving in Miami with something to prove and regaining the conditioning of his prime years, Shaq led the Heat to a 17-win improvement culminating in a seven-game loss to the eventual champion Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals. The following season in 2005-06, Miami won the title. Now, I know what you're thinking. Jermaine isn't Shaq and Chris Bosh isn't Wade. Furthermore, the Pistons were far from a dominant defending champion going into the '05-06 season — unlike the Boston Celtics who cast a looming shadow over the East. But three of the last four teams to win the Eastern Conference added a multiple-All-Star big man within the previous two off-seasons. (Note: This fact may also be of interest to Sixers fans.) None of this is to say that the Raptors should be considered the favorites in the East on the possibility that Jermaine O'Neal could return to prime form. But if the goal truly is to build a championship-quality team, there is no one player better than Jermaine O'Neal that Bryan Colangelo could have realistically acquired that could potentially raise this team to elite status. O'Neal's defensive acumen is well-established. He has averaged an impressive 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes over his career and his post presence was a key element in the Pacers' 61-win season in 2003-04 — the last season he was truly healthy. Bosh has not been shy in gushing about O'Neal's defensive impact so far in training camp: "Even on help side, it's unbelievable what he can do. I beat my man a couple of times, and then I had to beat him, too. And that's hard, to beat one guy and then to beat another. That's tough." On the offensive end, O'Neal's best contribution could prove to be his passing ability — which might not be what you would expect from a guy who averaged over 20 points per 36 minutes in four consecutive seasons from '02-03 through to '05-06. Jermaine averaged a career-high in assists last season with 2.8 per 36 minutes and he should easily top that this season now that he's no longer the first option on his team's offense and he'll be surrounded with an array of superior offensive weapons like Bosh, Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and Jason Kapono. In terms of scoring, O'Neal has never been a particularly efficient offensive player. He has a frustrating tendency to settle for low-percentage shots — as demonstrated by the fact that 73 percent of his scoring attempts last season were jump shots and he only made 36 percent of those shots. Sam Mitchell's biggest challenge with O'Neal will be encouraging him to pass out of lower-percentage opportunities and take advantage of putbacks and double-teams on Bosh. All of this seems quite wonderfully possible in theory but questions about O'Neal's health and pride are destined to remain in the back of the minds of Raptors fans this season. Colangelo claims that the addition of J.O. makes this best Raptors team ever on paper and I can't say I can argue with that claim in pixels. But the games are not played on paper or pixels, but on hardwood — and we'll have to see if O'Neal can reclaim his former greatness as he enters his 13th NBA season. |
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